The People’s Bank of China

The People’s Bank of China (central) today pledged to adopt a more flexible approach within a “prudent monetary policy” to ensure “reasonable” growth of the money supply in the second economy in the world.
This was stated by the regulator in a statement at the end of its quarterly meeting, the first after the economic conclave that Chinese authorities ended on Monday with a promise to ease monetary policy and increase the deficit.
The central bank complied with the mandate issued by the Central Economic Work Conference, the annual meeting where Chinese leaders define economic policy coming year, and said he would practice “prudent monetary policy,” the slogan that has held for the recent years, with “more flexibility”.
To put it into practice, the regulator said it will use a “broad mix” of monetary tools to keep a “moderate” liquidity in the market and to help achieve a “reasonable” growth in money supply and social finance.
In addition, the issuer announced that it will raise the “ratio” of direct financing, unmediated intermediaries such as banks, to lower the costs of fundraising companies.
In the area of ​​reforms, the central bank announced the second largest economy to continue to push to secure the liberalization of interest rates and the reform of the formation mechanism of the exchange rate both adopted this year.
The central bank also said it expects the exchange rate of its currency to remain “basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level”.

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Good data on consumption in the US published

Good data on consumption in the US published today pushed the euro lower, which gave almost everything he had won against the greenback in recent days.
The common currency fell today in the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt (Germany) and at 1600 GMT was trading at $ 1.0880, compared with $ 1.0964 it traded yesterday at this hour.
For its part, the European Central Bank (ECB) fixed the reference exchange rate of the common currency in the $ 1.0916.
Experts said that one of the factors that had weighed on the currency depreciation was the personal expense of American consumers, which confirms the consolidation of the cruise of the world’s largest economy.
The consumption data of Americans, released by the Commerce Department reported a 0.3% increase in November, a smaller rise than in October, but higher than expected.
Mixed data from the eurozone did not help give a clear boost the common currency: the French economy recovered some strength in the third quarter, but the corporate and household spending is clouded in November.
The euro fluctuated in a wide fork today, between 1.0873 and $ 1.0953

The European Central Bank (ECB) fixed the reference exchange rate of the common currency at $ 1.0952.
Thus the observed recovery was reinforced Monday after Friday and the euro began to recover some lost ground against the dollar immediately after the rate hike by the Fed, the previous week.
The euro fluctuated within a range that today was the $ 1.0902 to $ 1.0982
Among the positive factors in favor of the European currency was a study released today by consulting firm GfK, under which German consumers expect 2016 with optimism.
According to the report, citizens of the first Euroepa economy expect an increase in their income and not perceive greater insecurity despite jihadist terrorism.

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Former Russian Finance Minister

Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that Russia’s economy has not yet bottomed out and that the worst of the crisis may be ahead, in an interview published today by the Interfax agency
“Some time ago many experts, including myself, thought we had hit bottom. But today we see some indicators worse. To this we must add the sharp drop in oil prices, if it remains at its current level for half or a year, the economy continue to fall, “Kudrin said.
Therefore, he said it was the finance minister for eleven years, between 2000 and 2011, “you can not say that we have already passed the peak of the problems” economic.
The diagnosis of Kudrin, considered the architect of the policies that enabled Russia to overcome the crisis without major losses in 2008, differs from that of his former boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Less than two weeks ago, in its annual press conference, Putin pointed to “signs of stabilization” in economic activity and claimed that “the Russian economy has passed the worst of the crisis.”
“Next year brings a major challenge. Public spending will fall, inevitable, because they also fall income. The devaluation (of the ruble) has not yet been reflected in the prices, so that inflation next year will exceed 1 , 5 percent the official forecast of 6.4 percent, “said Kudrin.
The former head of Finance predicted for the coming high interest rates, risks to jobs and entire sectors of production, a new wave of loan defaults and thus risks to banking year.
On the other hand, he criticized the adoption of economic measures against Turkey, recently approved by Putin in retaliation for the shooting down of a Russian bomber Su-24 by two Turkish fighters in the Turkish-Syrian border.
“Russia has changed its position on sanctions but my position has not changed. I am opposed to the instrument of economic sanctions, whether they are against Russia as if they are against Turkey,” Kudrin said.
Former minister in the opinion, after the attack on the Su-24 “had to be limited to diplomatic measures and economic constraints prevent because they are also harmful to Russian companies”.
Kudrin also warned that Moscow’s military intervention in Syria has serious risks for the economy, since in addition to the economic cost of the operation, may jeopardize trade relations with many countries in the region have interests that do not coincide with Russia.

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The growth of Japan’s economy

The growth of Japan’s economy F1% by 2018 thanks to the positive impact of the 2020 Summer Olympics accelerates, according to an estimate by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released today.
The Japanese central bank estimates that the sporting event will generate about 25 trillion yen (190,000 million, 000 million dollars) in revenue for the Japanese economy between 2014 and 2020.
Distributed among the five remaining years for the Olympics, the increase would be about five trillion yen annually (38,000 million euros / 41,500 million), and reached its peak in 2018, when it would lead to an increase of 1% gross domestic product.
This estimate is based on planned investments in sports, hotel and catering and transport infrastructure increase, as well as an estimate of expenditure of foreign tourists who visit the country on the occasion of the Olympics.
The Bank of Japan expects the number of foreign tourists reach 33 million by 2020, an estimate that exceeds the target it has set the Japanese government for the year of 20 million passengers.
The company also estimates that labor demand will increase by about 700,000 additional jobs over the next five years, especially in the tourism and construction.
These estimates are based on “rough estimates” and could vary significantly, said a spokesman for the central bank to Kyodo

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Few weeks ago Israeli researchers

Few weeks ago Israeli researchers at the Weizmann Institute of Science confirmed something I already had long suspected: a calorie is not exactly like another and effectiveness of a diet depends on the individual biology of each person.
For this study, the levels of sugar are continuously monitored 800 people for a week and found that the answer to each food depended largely on each individual.
For example, while some people in glucose levels soared after eating bread, other was not true, which explains why some lose weight quickly by eliminating carbohydrates from their diets while others measure it does not work .
Furthermore, it was discovered that the same foods affect blood sugar differently in the same person, for example, if the intake had been preceded by exercise or sleep. All this indicates the crucial importance of context in any diet and generalized explains why so many diets are almost always useless.
And make trading regime does have much to do. Both are human activities that 90% of those trying to reach a goal fail miserably. We’ve written before about the importance of discipline in both activities and saw striking similarities between the two.
If you want to lose weight you have to be disciplined in what you eat and the exercise you are performing. If you want to operate well, we must be disciplined in terms of the points of entry and exit. Discipline is essential if we are to have the slightest chance of succeeding in both markets on a diet.
But the Weitzmann Institute study surprised me for a very different reason. I’ve long said that successful trading strategies do not exist. There is only one structure of trading that every person should modify according to their individual needs and characteristics.
In our trading room more than 400 people from all over the world participate. And they all operate according to a structure of intraday trading I have it developed.
But despite the fact that they all comply with the general rules of entry, exit and risk, many of them develop variations on this idea, and this is reflected every day in our trading room.
In fact, I’m surprised the variety of approaches that my traders can develop an idea that is already in itself highly selective, and some allows them to choose only one or two good trades each day of many possible, and generate 30 or 40 cycles of trading in all major currency pairs and crosses.
We are all different. We all have different approaches to risk and reward. When we talk about food, the combination of our personal chemistry and our environment create huge variations in what can burn our metabolism.
The same applies to trading: the sense of each particular risk, combined with market conditions can lead to different results using the same strategy.
I am aware that this is not what most traders do not want to go. I know that almost everybody wants is an easy solution, a unique formula to produce pips nonstop.
But life is not so. Success is always a matter of personal choice and responsibility. And this is the reason why, I think, many traders are successful in my room. As subjects of the Israeli study, have managed to find ways to do things in a way that works for them.

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Six years ago the financial crisis and the European

Six years ago the financial crisis and the European Central Bank is still trying to clean up its economy. Still in December, he has had to increase its stimulus measures in a desperate attempt to revive growth and push up inflation. This shows how entrenched is slowing and crude work they have done those responsible for monetary policy in the euro zone this year. During the third quarter, the eurozone economy has grown only 0.3%. During the same period, the US economy has advanced 2%. Inflation is low everywhere but the decline of around 10% of the EUR / USD with the quantitative easing program implemented in early 2015 should have been more effective in making up inflation, which rose to a annualized rate of 0.2% in November, well below the central bank target is set at 2%
2016 poses more challenges for the eurozone economy. While the ECB is happy with its current monetary policy, will have to expand its bond purchases beyond 2016. September is only the first goal and we can not think how could the growth or inflation improve enough in nine months to ensure a reduction of stimuli. Furthermore, if inflation and growth will not progress significantly, the bank may have to expand the program next year. The ECB’s decision to increase the stimuli in December was a reflection of his sense of urgency and the general concern about the economy. Their efforts are paying off, and we have already seen signs of recovery in Germany but on the horizon significant risks. Expectations of further weakening of emerging economies, particularly China, the political instability in the Middle East and Russia, the high level of unemployment and stagnant wages are only some of the problems they pose a danger to the eurozone 2016. The countries of the region will benefit from the new round of stimulus, the weaker euro and lower oil prices but the benefits soon appear. France and Italy have not made much progress in terms of growth and although Spain is not doing anything wrong, is only the fourth largest economy in the region. The fiscal position of most countries in the euro area is also very weak and only a handful of them have registered a budget surplus during the last three years. The largest sector, financial, have to deal with negative deposit rates. Debt levels are high and no significant progress expected in the reduction of the burden in the next 12 years.
The biggest risks facing the euro zone in 2016 are political. Greece return to the headlines, as his government tries to pass as can reforms to meet the demands that their rescue. According to S & P, the nation is still at risk of incurring a default. At the same time, migration will be a sensitive issue for Europe. In 2015, European countries have welcomed millions of Syrian refugees with open arms but the attacks in Paris have transformed the attitude of Europe and now stricter border control is required. These demands quickly intensify if the Islamic state carried out another attack in the region. No doubt will try again and depends on the European intelligence to avoid another catastrophe. The blatant intervention of Russia in Ukraine in 2015 destroyed the illusion that European conflicts on the continent were ancient history. The EU has been forced to impose sanctions, contributing to strained relations with Russia and, this summer, will have to decide whether the sanctions, which expire in July must be lifted or extended. So, between the vagus growth, advancing the refugee crisis, the attacks of the Islamic State and the tensions with Russia, 2016 will present a great challenge for Europe.
In terms of currency, forget parity. In 2015, many analysts glimpsed euro parity but never reached that level. There are large institutions like Goldman Sachs (N: GS), Deutsche Bank (DE: DBKGn) and BNP Paribas are still possible that this objective is reached in 2016. Although expectations that US rates rise further and continuing ECB stimulus kept the euro under great pressure, parity talk has no purpose than to grab headlines. Experienced traders know that such extreme goals are difficult to achieve. We agree that the EUR / USD will go up next year, and we believe it will reach 1.05 but the weakening of the currency helps to strengthen their economies and, at 1.05, the euro already benefits greatly from the combination of the stimulus measures of the ECB and the euro decline. When they begin to perceive the benefits to improve data in the eurozone, the ECB will be more optimistic about the economy and feel less pressured to increase its stimulus measures, which could be a turning point for the euro. For now, let’s focus on the opportunity of 4 or 5 cents that we are offered. We believe that the EUR / USD recorded minimum of 12 years in 1.0459 and then go up one or two cents before deciding which way to go.
Technically, there are only two important support levels for EUR / USD: the 12-year lows in 1.0459 and parity. If the minimum registered recently are exceeded, it should trigger a rapid decline towards the 1.0000 level. If we look at the long-term chart of the currency, we can observe a mostly higher education. When the EUR / USD stood at levels below 1.1877, 2010 lows, his was a rapid decline hastael 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upturn between 2000 and 2008. This Fibonacci level 1.1215 It is now necessary strength and the currency closing above it to reverse the lack of confidence in the currency.

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